A lab on a laptop (Apple M4, 24 GB) compared three Ollama versions of the same model: qwen2.5:3b (Q4_K_M), qwen2.5:3b-instruct-q8_0 and qwen2.5:3b-instruct-fp16. The files were 6.18 GB, 3.29 GB and 1.93 GB. You can check this by hand: 3,085,938,688 weights x 16 bits / 8 is about 6.17 GB, and at 8.5 bits it is about 3.28 GB.
Next, the lab asked each file for its most likely next word on 24 prompts, using the 16-bit file as the reference. Q8_0 kept the same top word on 24 of 24, and the probability moved by a median of 0.4 percentage points. Q4_K_M kept it on 19 of 24, with a median move of 2.9 points. All 5 changes were on open prompts where two words were nearly tied. After 'The best way to learn is', the 16-bit file put ' to' first at 0.30 and ' by' second at 0.26; Q4_K_M swapped them. All 12 prompts with one clear answer kept their top word.
On 40 two-digit multiplications at temperature 0, the 16-bit and Q8_0 files got the very same 33 right. Q4_K_M got 30, but it lost 5 and gained 2 compared with the 16-bit file, and a sign test gave p = 0.45, too close to call with 40 questions. Longer texts showed rounding more: on 12 open prompts, Q8_0's text matched the 16-bit text for a median of 136 characters, Q4_K_M's for only 8. Different, not necessarily worse.