A triage agent handled 12 support tickets, each with 6 decisions to get right, such as the order id, the amount and whether the item was inside the returns window. Each ticket ran 5 times, so there were 360 calls, on a model with four billion parameters running on a laptop. There were 81 step failures, and they reduced to only 13 distinct combinations of step, answer given and answer expected, few enough to read every one.
Coding them gave four names. 'Hedged to false', a judgement that needed a comparison answered with the safe-looking 'no', covered 44 failures (54 percent). 'Wrong downstream decision' covered 23 (28 percent), 'category confusion' 10 (12 percent), and 'null written as zero' 4 (5 percent). The task-level pass rate for the run was 21.7 percent. That number was true and measured, and it gave no next step. The coding pointed at one habit in one kind of question, which points at one prompt.
Reading also found something no dashboard would plot. Each decision was a separate call that saw only the ticket, yet the final decision was wrong 57 percent of the time when an earlier premise, judged in a different call, was wrong, and 20 percent of the time when that premise was right. Both were wrong together 17 times, against 11.5 expected if the two were independent. Nothing leaked between calls: the model re-derived the same judgement and got it wrong the same way.